Fitch Solutions has forecast a modest depreciation of the Ghana cedi against the US dollar before the close of 2025, even as the local currency records historic gains earlier this year.
The cedi has appreciated by over 29 percent against the dollar in the retail market since January, marking a historic trajectory for the currency. It is currently trading at GH¢12.00 to one dollar at forex bureaus and GH¢10.92 on the interbank market.
According to the UK-based firm, most major Sub-Saharan African currencies are expected to remain broadly stable through the fourth quarter of 2025 and into 2026.
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Fitch anticipates a slight weakening of the Ghana cedi, the Zambia kwacha, the Nigerian naira, and the South African rand, projecting roughly an 8 percent depreciation of the cedi against the dollar by the end of 2025.
This would translate to an interbank rate of about GH¢11.70 by the end of 2026.
“While modest depreciation against the US dollar is likely in the coming quarters, currencies will remain far more stable than during the volatility experienced in 2023 and 2024,” Fitch noted.
The firm cited continued softness in the US dollar and robust risk appetite for emerging market currencies as tailwinds supporting Sub-Saharan Africa’s forex stability.
Fitch also highlighted that gold prices are expected to remain elevated due to US policy uncertainty, anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and ongoing geopolitical tensions.
Nevertheless, stronger reserves from high gold revenues, interventions by the Bank of Ghana, and measures to protect export competitiveness are likely to limit sustained cedi gains.
